How important is Draft Position (Based on Analysis of 2004 NFFC)?

Most people agree that there are pro’s and con’s to all draft positions, including early, middle and late draft positions. Some people may have their preference, but theoretically you can win from any draft position. The results from the NFFC support that theory fairly well as owners from 12 out of the 14 draft positions made the playoffs.

Here are the results from the NFFC by draft position:

NFFC 2004 Results by Draft Position

Here are some similarities among the most and least successful draft positions:

  • Draft Position #2: All four playoff teams drafted LaDainian Tomlinson
  • Draft Position #8: All four playoff teams drafted Edgerrin James
  • Draft Position #13: All four playoff teams drafted different players, including Domanick Davis, Fred Taylor, Kevan Barlow and Daunte Culpepper.
  • Draft Position #9 and #10: The most common player drafted was Jamal Lewis with 10 of the 32 owners at this position selecting Jamal Lewis.

The top 10 ranked teams drafted from the following positions:

Top Teams by Draft Position for 2004 NFFC

Read the rest of this entry »

Importance of the Draft in Fantasy Football

(Continuing analysis of the 2004 NFFC)

Before we dive into the details of the different draft strategies incorporated by owners participating in the NFFC High Stakes League, lets first state exactly how important the draft is to the success of a fantasy football team. We obviously know the draft is critical, but how critical exactly? Are teams fates completely determined on draft day or can owners change their fate through free agent pick-ups and line-up changes?

The following analysis includes player and team performance through the regular season (Weeks 1-13 of the NFL season).

Here are a few stats on exactly how important the draft was for the NFFC:
• On average teams earned 87% of their teams total points on draft day
• The #1 drafting team finished with the #1 overall ranking
• The #224 drafting team finished with the #224 overall ranking
• 8 of the top 10 drafting teams made the playoffs
• 20 of the top 30 drafting teams made the playoffs; only 12 of the remaining 194 teams made the playoffs.
• The best drafting team that did not make the playoffs was ranked 7th on draft day and dead last with free agent pick-ups. That team finished with an overall rank of 53rd.
• The worst drafting team that did make the playoffs was ranked 131st on draft day and 6th on free agent pickups. Those pickups helped that team climb to the 19th ranking overall.

Clearly, you needed to have a successful draft in order to have a successful season. The above stats show exactly how good your draft has to be.

Contents of Draft Analysis
The associated posts analyze exactly how important each aspect of winning a fantasy football league is, including the following:
1. How important is draft position?
2. How dependant are teams on the success of their first round draft pick?
3. How important is draft strategy?
4. How important is FAAB?

Included in each is a brief analysis of the top 3 ranked teams in the NFFC.

Overview of Draft Strategy Analysis for 2004 NFFC

***Excerpt from analysis completed November, 2004***

The following is the beginning of an in-depth look at the winning and losing draft strategies incorporated by owners participating in Krause Publication’s National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC). The NFFC high stakes league is the top high stakes fantasy football league in the nation, pitting 224 fantasy experts from all over the country against each other in 16 head-to-head leagues. In short, this tournament has the best of the best competing for serious money.

Participants did not pay the $1,250 entrance fee to draft all the players from their favorite home town team and they don’t pass out drunk until after the draft is over! Each owner pays close attention through each of the 18 rounds and puts years of experience, months of research and 90 seconds of gut feel behind each carefully selected draft pick. Many owners even show up with the latest and greatest software applications to give them that extra edge on draft day (such as our Draft Analyzer Pro Version: www.draftdynamix.com). Therefore, there is no better draft data to analyze than the 4,032 draft picks made by 224 of the best fantasy football minds around.

The posts associated with this analysis aim to use cold hard facts and figures to answer many of the common draft day myths. Ever wonder how successful the stud RB drafting strategy truly is? Ever wonder if your fate is determined even before you draft, because you didn’t get the draft position you were hoping for? Ever wonder how much you can improve your team through free agent pick-ups? Many fantasy enthusiasts have their opinion, but we have crunched the numbers and have the answers.

Hello!

Welcome to my blog about fantasy sports! The posts to follow are focused on analyzing fantasy sports strategies and players. Most of the posts will include detailed quantitative analysis using a variety of available data sources from around the web as well as proprietary data provided in partnership with the National Fantasy Football Championship high stakes leagues (NFFC). The NFFC is one of the largest high stakes leagues in the nation with 26 leagues and 364 teams playing for $100,000. In short, the participants in this league are the best of the best and provide the highest quality of data to analyze what it takes to win in fantasy football.Feel free to link to your own analysis or blogs and to let me know what type of quantitative analysis you would be interested in seeing.